Oscars Watch Guide: Best Supporting Actress
With Michelle Williams out, who will take the crown? Updated 1/11/23
Back in the fall, the Supporting Actress race was blown OPEN when Michelle Williams announced she will be (arguably rightfully) running in the Lead Actress category. Michelle Williams — fast approaching Amy Adams- or Glenn Close-levels of nominations without a win — was the assumed winner of this award it wasn’t even feeling fun anymore.
But with her moving out, a once angeringly boring category (why was I mad Michelle Williams was finally getting her Oscar?!) spreads out to the width of an LA freeway with dynamics shifting so much, former Dark Horses have become Predictions. Will the MCU finally make its mark on the Acting awards? How many nominees will be from Women Talking or Everything Everywhere All At Once? Will any previously relatively unknown actors break through?
In this series, starting below with the aformentioned category, I will outline my Predictions, On Decks, and Dark Horses to get nominated in the eight “major” Oscar categories. Hell, I’ve even thrown in Springthorpe’s Wild Card, a movie or role with zero chance of gettin nominated, but 100% worth your time. For each, I provide my take on the film and where (or when) you can find them. Let’s get going!
Locks
Angela Bassett — Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Where to Find It: In theaters now, and on Disney+ February 1st!
Oscar Power: The Oscar chances of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever mostly dimmed after its premier — that is, except for Ms. Angela Bassett. The overwhelming sentiment after the movie was that it was trying to do too much and ended up overstuffed, but that Angela fucking OWNS it. Now that she’s beat major competitors to win the Golden Globe, she’s elbowed her way to the front. Plus — and this is just a theory — I wonder if the Academy is feeling some guilt over their royal whiffing of (not) awarding Chadwick and will channel that toward his former costar.
Springthorpe’s Take: She deserves it. As soon as the first trailer for this movie came out, I’ve been banging the drum for an Angela nod, and now that I’ve seen the movie I’m banging it even harder. She’s not the lead of the movie in any way, but she gets close to it in a very exciting way (for awards).
Jessie Buckley — Women Talking
Where to Find It: In theaters now!
Oscar Power: If you’d asked me a month ago, I would’ve told you this movie was getting one, if not two, nominations in this category. As precursors have rolled in, however, it seems like the women aren’t talking so much as cannibalizing each other. Multiple awards bodies have snubbed the entire female cast of the film. (Some have even turned around and rewarded it for ensemble!) Nobody expected Jessie Buckley’s nom for The Lost Daughter last year, so I’m confident she’ll still shine through.
Springthorpe’s Take: I’ll be honest, she’s not my pick. She’s my THIRD pick, but that’s like saying tacos are my third favorite food. As the “most conservative” of the younger women, Jessie holds everything in her massive jaw…until she doesn’t.
Kerry Condon — The Banshees of Inisheerin
Where to Find It: On HBOMaxnow!
Oscar Power: With this entire movie definitely going far this awards season, the entire cast is likely to be nominated (along with a slew of crew members). A relative newcomer, Kerry’s role is so vitally important for the movie to work that she makes for a classic Supporting Actress ingénue.
Springthorpe’s Take: Wanna know a secret? Kerry Condon is the best damn performance in the movie and is close to being my personal vote to win Best Supporting Actress this year. She’s the audience surrogate, reminding the boys that (spoiler alert) they’re all feckin’ boring!
Jamie Lee Curtis — Everything Everywhere All At Once
Where to Find It: On Showtime now, which is not a usual streamer, but is definitely worth it for more than just this (it’s A24’s go-to streamer home!)
Oscar Power: You know Jamie Lee Curtis has never even been nominated for an Oscar? It’s not too surprising, given her history in genre films, but you’d think surely she got something once, but no! The entire cast of EEAAO is out in force campaigning for this movie, but JLC’s the Biggest Hollywood Star. Her continuing to talk about her love of this movie, and everyone involved in it, coupled with what I assume is decades of goodwill in the industry, are bound to make Deirdre Beaubeirdra her crowning achievement.
Springthorpe’s Take: What’s not to love about Jamie Lee Curtis playing a frumpy old bitch? She doesn’t have to show quite the range of performance as Michelle, Ke, or Stephanie, but her character is so bonkers and feels so lived in, she more than holds her own. (She’s also essentially acting as campaign manager for the entire EEAAO team.)
Dolly De Leon — Triangle of Sadness
Where to Find It: On VOD now!
Oscar Power: As a whole, this movie is quietly carving out a surprisingly solid space with the Academy. And Dolly is, I’m sure, a major reason behind that. What I once saw as a far-off dream now looks like a reality. If Ruben Östlund doesn’t start putting Dolly in front of every reporter who will listen, he’s making a mistake! I will not spoil it, but a Philllipina actor in this role may just be absolute fodder for the Academy.
Springthorpe’s Take: This is one of my favorite movies of the year, and she’s the best part of it. So, yeah, I think Dolly deserves a lot of gold. (Her and her character!)
Likelies
Hong Chau — The Whale
Where to Find It: In theaters now!
Oscar Power: The Oscars campaigning for this movie is….interesting. For a while, we had only seen still images and mixed critics’ review. Now that the movie is out and getting worse reviews (and surprisingly good box office???) the reputation has…stayed the same? Hong is routinely lauded as one of the best parts of this dreck film, but her (better???) role in The Menu may help her earn the cheddar.
Springthorpe’s Take: I am, unfortunately, of the mind that Hong was served (lol) better in The Menu, but, jesus! She knocks it out of the park twice this year! There should be a better endgame for someone who scores at least 80% in two movies than someone who is 100% in one!
Stephanie Hsu — Everything Everywhere All At Once
Where to Find It: On Showtime now, which is not a usual streamer, but is definitely worth it for more than just this (it’s A24’s go-to streamer home!)
Oscar Power: As this Awards season progresses, Jamie Lee Curtis has gotten the majority of the attention from EEAAO in this category, and understandably so. Unfortunately, it’s an example of career and meta-narratives clouding actual screentime and work, because the narrative SHOULD be around Stephanie! She’s maintained her footing in the race, losing out on things like Golden Globes, but earning nods from the SAGs and some critics' bodies. With Women Talking shaking more and more, Jobu Topaki may have her in.
Springthorpe’s Take: *whispers* If you ask me, she’s the frickin winner, baby! The fact that she has to play both Joy and Jobu and everything in between….mesmerizing!!!!!
Dark Horses
Janelle Monaé — Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Where to Find It: On Netflix now!!!
Oscar Power: Janelle was the big story from the Glass Onion premiere at the Toronto Film Festival. The original didn’t get anything beyond Screenplay, but with a sparse ticket, Netflix might decide to spread the wealth more with their movies, and Janelle could get her (overdue, in my opinion) first Oscar nom.
Springthorpe’s Take: Janelle *is* the story from the movie! Sure, Kathryn Hahn is a welcome acid in this cast of mostly butter performances, and Kate Hudson reminds us she is Goldie Hawn’s Goddamn Daughter, but Janelle is the story. I won’t spoil anything, but she’s THE story.
Springthorpe’s Wild Card
Rachel Sennott — Bodies Bodies Bodies
Where to Find It: Sadly, it’s only on VOD now
Why It Has No Chance: While this movie is technically eligible, a Gen-Z horror sendup is not exactly Oscarbait.
Springthorpe’s Take: You know how you hear people describe actors like Willem Dafoe or Lakeith Stanfield as never making a choice you would expect? Rachel Sennott does exactly that here. Every time you think she’s gonna zig, she says “Fruit Loops!” (which is crazier than zagging).
