Oscars Watch Guide: Adapted Screenplay
Who did the best rewriting job this year? Updated 1/8/23
My 2023 Oscars Watch Guide begins right above the proverbial “line” demarcating the (to some people) TV-worthy categories from the more-aptly-named technical categories: Best Adapted Screenplay.
As this is the first installment in this series, some background. We are now officially in Awards Season! While some may still be only in “limited release”, technically every Oscar contender has premiered to at least some audience. Instead of scrambling in March to watch VOD-only movies in an effort to feel prepared for Hollywood’s Biggest Night, I have made a Watch Guide to help you plan your next few months of watching. Which movies are going to win which awards? How realistic are their chances? And where the hell can I find them? Look no further.
I spend far too many hours of my one precious life on this planet scrolling Film Twitter, listening to awards podcasts, and reading prognostications. To make some good out of it, I will give you my uncredentialed-but-correct opinions on What Movies Will Matter Where, so you don’t have to waste two hours of your life watching Robert Zemeckis’ dreadful live-action Pinocchio as I did.
In this series, starting below with the aformentioned category, I will outline my Predictions, On Decks, and Dark Horses to get nominated in the eight “major” Oscar categories. Hell, I’ve even thrown in Springthorpe’s Wild Card, a movie or role with zero chance of gettin nominated, but 100% worth your time. For each, I provide my take on the film and where (or when) you can find them. Let’s get going!
Predictions
Avatar: The Way of Water
Where to Find It: In theaters now!
Oscar Power: Here’s the thing — don’t ever bet against Big Jim unless you’re looking to lose. It took him 12 years after winning Best Director for the highest-grossing film ever made (a movie viewed as a folly at the time) to develop the tech to make the NEW highest-grossing film of all time. Now, 13 years after that, he’s done it again. In just a few weeks, A:TWOW has already outgrossed Top Gun: Maverick and is eating up awards. The original didn’t get a screenplay nom, but this one’s got a weak Adapted year, so you can count on it.
Springthorpe’s Take: The Avatar series is more proof of the magic of movie theaters than Nicole Kidman could ever hope to conjure. Having watched the original twice last year — once at home, once in the theater — the experiences are not even comparable to each other. And this movie? It’s better.
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story
Where to Find It: On Netflix now!
Oscar Power: The original got a nod for Original Screenplay back in 2019, and with Netflix possibly putting a lot of its eggs in Rian Johnson’s glass basket, this sequel is looking like it will cruise to another nomination or even a win! The brief theatrical release garnered huge rave reviews, and even though the Netflix drop held mixed reactions, it was still watched by more people than any movie in the running (except, maybe, Avatar).
Springthorpe’s Take: Structurally, it’s very different from Knives Out, and while some people may not enjoy that, I loved it. Rian knows how to keep you on your toes. It may not have as intricate and jaw-dropping of a final twist, but it definitely works. Rewatching it also rewards you with tons of added metaphor, now that you know the twist.
Living
Where to Find It: In theaters now!
Oscar Power: Despite seemingly being a nothing contender (I’m surprised they released this outside of England), this movie has a secret weapon lurking under its bowler hat: it’s an adaptation of an Akira Kurosawa film. Tack on the fact that its script is written by a Nobel Prize laureate, expect to see it appear more often.
Springthorpe’s Take: This was the FINAL Oscar-y film I saw in 2022. Not bad! Not great or a lot of fun, but not bad. After Bill, the story is definitely the best part. It’s a simultaneously heartwarming and -breaking tale of an old man who goes out in a smiley bang.
The Whale
Where to Find It: In theaters now!
Oscar Power: Brendan is the real story here, but a movie based on a play is always a good bet.
Springthorpe’s Take: This movie is not good. The direction is the main villain, but the script isn’t great either. It’s so play-y in that it basically just exists in one room, but my god, I’ve never seen a play adaptation seem so boring because of that!
Women Talking
Where to Find It: In theaters now!
Oscar Power: While Women Talking’s general chances have felt like they’re slipping in recent weeks, its Adapted Screenplay chance has held strong. Couple that with a weak year in Adapted, and Sarah Polley can probably rest easy that she will get at least one nod (or win) for her drama.
Springthorpe’s Take: Someone on the internet called this film “12 Angry Women,” and that couldn’t be a better nickname. Set mostly in one place, it does an amazing job of establishing a handful of discreet characters with understandable, specific ideologies. And then, even lets them grow and change! Extremely good writing.
On Deck
Top Gun: Maverick
Where to Find It: On Paramount+ now!
Oscar Power: How well this film does will depend on how much the Academy wants to thank Tom Cruise for saving the movies. If they’re very thankful, it could very well dominate.
Springthorpe’s Take: I am not a fan of Top Gun (1986). Top Gun: Maverick is a fucking blast and a half. Sorry to the haters (including me).
Dark Horses
Pinocchio
Where to Find It: On Netflix now!
Oscar Power: I’m not doing an Animated Feature writeup, but this movie is the winner. Hands down, lock it in, throw away the key. GDT, as a recent Best Picture winner and longtime Oscar darling, just has the power to push his stop-motion Pinocchio movie across the finish line. With an Adapted Screenplay contingent that’s somewhat lacking, he could find himself in at least one above-the-line category.
Springthorpe’s Take: This movie is more beautiful, heartbreaking, and downright hilarious than it has any right or need to be. But, then again, it’s Guillermo del Toro. What else should we expect?
She Said
Where to Find It: On Peacock now!
Oscar Power: The second of two Post-#MeToo movies eligible in this category, this one certainly needed to make a splash to maintain its (at one point good) footing. Unfortunately, She Said fell victim to a vicious Thanksgivingtime cycle of “Wow, this Oscar-buzz movie bombed!” headlines. Whether it was bad marketing, or just a bad premise, the American people voted against it with their wallets. What was once a surefire Lock will now be lucky to get a single nomination.
Springthorpe’s Take: As someone who only took Journalism 101 in college, this feels like it would (surprisingly) be the most accurate depiction of what it’s like writing a big story at a newspaper. Sometimes that works, but other times, the tonal shifts threw me. But I can never hate a journalism movie so oh well.
Springthorpe’s Wild Card
Bones & All
Where to Find It: On VOD Now!
Why It Has No Chance: Three words: coming-of-age, cannibal, romance.
Springthorpe’s Take: G-O-R-G-E-O-U-S. I tell ya, that Luca Guadagnino knows how to make a good film. A surprisingly sweet story, that’s a metaphor for everything from growing up gay to the opioid crisis. I wish it had more legs, but unless it was a box office smash, it was ultimately doomed to be eaten alive by the Academy’s prudish tastes.
