2024 Oscar Race — December Predictions
We come to this place for predictions…
Welcome! For the next 4 months, I’ll be publishing these prediction guides for the current state of the race for the 97th Academy Awards (March 2nd, 2025). As always, these are just my personal feelings, based on years of reading countless Variety articles, listening to Hollywood Reporter podcasts, and combing through predictions on Gold Derby. Plus, I’m gay, so I have a special sixth sense for these kinds of things.
The last few years have had, let’s say, odd Oscar ceremonies (shout out Will Smith), but the major winners were more or less sewn up by the time the awards rolled around. We all knew Nomadland was the only movie worth rewarding in 2020, Jane Campion finally got her laurels in 2021, Ke Huy Quan won nearly every precursor award in 2022, and Oppenheimer nuclear blasted any and all competition away starting in July last year. This year, however, we still have a shockingly wide-open race in every major category. That’s right, for the first time in years, I could not tell you with 100% confidence who will win anything except International Feature. And it’s Thanksgiving!
This year’s race is also a lot smaller in terms of the scale of eligible movies. Whereas last year two of the year’s highest-grossing films were vying for multiple awards, 2024 has swung back towards the indies. This doesn’t mean there’s no blockbusters–Dune: Part Two and Wicked are major players, and flicks like Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown are poised to do well at the box office. But one of my goals with this series is to also hopefully inspire more people to see tiny masterpieces like Anora, Sing Sing, and Hard Truths. (For full, up-to-date predictions, you can check out my spreadsheet.)
So let’s stop huffing spice and hitting vape pens in the courtyard and get into it!
Best Picture
- Anora***
- Blitz
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Dune: Part Two
- Emilia Pérez
- Gladiator II
- Sing Sing
- The Substance
- Wicked
This time last year–and for the last half-decade–I could have told you at most two movies that would be winning The Big One (and be correct). This year, not so much, and that’s what’s so exciting! Can you imagine knowing 6 months who will win the Super Bowl, no matter what? Boooo. So anyone looking for a handy handful of movies to check out, I’m sorry to say it’s more fun this year.
A few months ago, Kyle Buchanan of the NYT proclaimed this year to be the ABCDE Oscars–the only locks at the time were the movies Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, and Emilia Pérez. Four of the films had debuted at festivals to massive acclaim, often winning top prizes (Anora won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival, the most prestigious international festival, a first for American films since 2011). Dune, on the other hand, was already a massive hit and the better-loved sequel to a multiple-Oscar-winning Best Picture nominee.
Things are still looking good for ABCD, but since its Netflix release, Emilia Pérez has suffered from new criticism. After an essentially nonexistent theater run (typical for Netflix releases), the Spanish-language trans drug lord musical got more chuckles than laughs as people watching at home on a laptop had a different experience than festivalgoers did seeing the large, bombastic film on a big screen. I think Emilia still has the juice to crack the ten, but its chances of nabbing the top prize are starting to slip through its fingers.
On the other side of things, two weeks ago Wicked was basically a pity pick for Best Picture. Then the reviews started coming in… Don’t ever let anybody tell you that public perception is meaningless; Elphaba and Emilia swapped places in a lot of estimations. Wicked is now leading Variety’s predictions to win Best Picture! Personally, I think that’s Opening Weekend Hype, but it’s clear that Jon M. Chu’s latest has real legs.
Outside of the ABCW’s, Steve McQueen’s WWII drama Blitz was relying on release buzz, but it’s now relegated to Apple TV+ (and voter DVDs). A24’s Sing Sing has been maintaining a steady hold–not just because it’s a prison drama starring New Academy Darling Colman Domingo. First Looks gave mixed receptions to two other big releases: Gladiator II has failed to entirely live up to the reputation of the Best-Picture-winning first film; however, critics are (unsurprisingly) fawning over the latest musician biopic, and it only helps that it’s directed by the man behind Walk the Line and starring Timothée Chalamet (it’s no longer a complete unknown in the race).
On the fringes, we have Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain and RaMell Ross’ Nickel Boys. Similar to The Brutalist, Pain may get a boost because it’s a modern Holocaust dramedy, given current events. Meanwhile, Nickel is an (apparently visually mind-bending) adaptation of a Colson Whitehead novel. TAKE YOUR PICK! The real story is, funnily enough, The Substance, a French horror-comedy staring Hollywood right in the face. If this is a truly modern Oscars (Ozcars?), then this Demi Moore-starring twisted tale will crack Best Picture. The evidence is the amount of videos and memes about it on TikTok and Twitter (I Will Not Call It Anything Else). Coralie Fargeat’s Cannes Screenplay Award-winning flick has made quite an indent on the internet, and I think it will ride that to a Best Picture nomination!
Other flicks to look out for include Saturday Night, the SNL Episode 1 movie. While this author loved it, the weak box office, along with the unfortunate critical reviews mean it may be cut at dress. Robert Eggers, after an all-star run founding A24 Horror (from The VVItch to The Northman) is positioned to make a real impact with his remake of the Spongebob-referenced classic Nosferatu. It will likely have a below-the-line hold, but it could sneak into the Big Boys, too. This past weekend, Denzel Washington’s son Malcom made his debut with Netflix’s The Piano Lesson. It has plenty of juice in other awards, but it’s remaining on the sidelines for Best Picture.
There are plenty of realistic and worthy movies (you may have noticed the masterpiece Furiosa is entirely absent from my predictions) also in the race, but those are the major players. I could keep going, but it’s time to go behind the camera…
Best Director
- Sean Baker (Anora)***
- Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
- Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
- Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
- Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)
At this point, I should call out the fact that I think that the Palme-winning Anora is positioned to do a minor sweep at this ceremony. It just also happens to be alphabetically first most of the time. That said, Sean Baker is an as-yet-unnominated director with a lot of respect in the industry. His win would also break a streak of no Americans winning the prize since Damien Chazelle in 2016.
Baker’s biggest competition comes from an American wunderkind and a British elder statesman, each with their own sweeping epics. Brady Corbet has already won the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival (the fest’s directing prize) for his 3-hour-with-an-intermission story about an architect surviving the Holocaust and trying to live the American Dream. He’s also benefitted by the fact that his visually astounding flick was made for, essentially, pocket change.
On the other hand, we have Hollywood’s favorite curmudgeon, Ridley Scott, with the sequel to his Best Picture-winning Gladiator. Despite a nearly 50-year career making some of the best movies ever (Alien, Blade Runner, Thelma & Louise, and Black Hawk Down just to name a few), Sir Ridley has *never* won Best Director. Many are suspecting this may be the Academy’s chance to finally reward the 86-year-old, even as he continues to crank out more movies and give grumbling jabs in interviews.
Over the last few years, directors have gotten a reputation for being the snobbiest branch of the Academy. That’s a little unfair, but what they have demonstrably done is reflect the increasingly more international makeup of the body. Since 2018, we’ve gotten nominations for Justine Triet, Ruben Östlund, Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Thomas Vinterberg, Bong Joon-ho, and Paweł Pawlikowski (and that’s on top of “already accepted” directors like Alfonso Cuarón and Chloé Zhao). This year, I think that slot is Coralie Fargeat’s. If the movie has as much strength as I think it quietly does, she is a perfect pick for a comfortably international film with flashy direction (just ask Triangle of Sadness how that goes).
Rounding out my predicted group is Denis Villeneuve for his gigantic Dune: Part Two. Despite being the winningest (and second nominatedest) movie at the 94th Oscars, Dune did not receive a directing nod for Denis. It’s certainly possible that the finicky directors’ branch blanks him again (especially with Dune: Messiah officially in the works), but I think this sandworm is too big to ignore.
Outside of my five, you have two major multi-award contenders vying for a potential spot: Jacques Audiard for Emilia Pérez and Jon M. Chu for Wicked. Personally, I worry that Jacques is getting cut by the movie’s less-than-stellar recent reception, and Wicked is just not good enough and too popcorn for the directors to nominate. (A note: for the Oscars, only those members in the respective branch vote for the nominees. Once nominations are locked, though, the entire voting body votes for all winners. Hence why the directing nominations may be “odd”, even though the winner has gone to the Best Picture winner 4 out of the 5 past years.)
Other contenders include RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys. I have not gotten a chance to see it yet, but it is getting massive praise for its innovative direction. By all accounts, the filmmaking goes beyond almost any other mainstream film in taking a first-person perspective. Could those snobs in the director’s chair elevate this smaller film for its ingenuity? The remaining players aren’t quite as exciting, but nonetheless deserving: Edward Berger for Conclave (he missed out on the wave of All Quiet love two years ago), James Mangold for A Complete Unknown (he’s only gotten nominated twice, but never for directing), and Steve McQueen for Blitz (Alfonso Cuarón beat him the year of 12 Years a Slave). We also have two potential international spoilers in Walter Salles (I’m Still Here) and Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light). Light is ineligible for International Feature, but there’s a chance a groundswell of love could get the movie in elsewhere.
Best Actress
- Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
- Angelina Jolie, Maria
- Mikey Madison, Anora***
- Demi Moore, The Substance
This year, the Oscars have the very plausible chance to nominate an out trans person for a major Academy Award. (Elliot Page was nominated for Juno, but at the time was not out as a trans man.) Karla Sofia Gascón, who plays the titular drug cartel leader-turned-philanthropist in Emilia Pérez, portrays the character both before and after her transition. Cynically, the historical nature of this nomination is reason enough to believe it could happen, but the movie is still set to do well at the Oscars, and Karla’s dual performance (in a musical, too!) is good enough to easily earn a spot.
Best Actress tends to be the most competitive acting award, just look at the face-offs between Michelle & Cate and Lily & Emma the last two years. At the same time, it also tends to line up the least with Best Picture (thanks, misogyny). This year is no different, and the best example is Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Mike Leigh’s newest, Hard Truths. Playing a hard-bitten grump of a woman in a post-Covid world, Jean-Baptiste is already getting praise for putting on the performance of the year in this small film. The actors’ branch likes to throw in curveballs here and there (remember Andrea Riseborough?), and a second nomination for Marianne in another Mike Leigh film could be just that.
While Marianne and Karla are likely just happy to be nominated, Angelina Jolie is one of two major major players in this race. Already an Oscar winner (for Best Director spoiler James Mangold’s Girl, Interrupted), Jolie is returning to the race since 2009’s Changeling in the third of Pablo Larraín’s trilogy of 20th century women, Maria. Playing the Chilean opera singer Maria Callas, Angelina is following in the footsteps of her predecessors (Kristen Stewart in Spencer and Natalie Portman in Jackie) to an easy nomination. Unlike Natalie and Kristen, though, Angelina is a favorite among some to win the big prize, especially since her prior win was in the Supporting category.
Hey, at least Anora wasn’t first this time! The sweep continues into Best Actress, though, as I predict this is, ultimately, Mikey Madison’s year to win. As Anora (but call her Annie), Madison hardly leaves the screen for the entirety of the movie’s runtime. She also plays a sex worker, and really goes there. If the Oscars were decided by thigh strength on a pole, Mikey would be the only competitor. Unfortunately, Mikey is also a bit of an ingenue/discovery for the Academy, and that kind of role isn’t historically rewarded in Best Actress (even Emma Stone had to wait for her second nom to win). I personally don’t think it will come back to bite her, but having a Grande Dame like Angelina (and others!) in the race means it’s not entirely sewn up for Annie.
Our increasingly-less-dark-horse final nominee is Demi Moore, for her at times achingly honest, at others absolutely bugnuts performance in The Substance. With every TikTok of Elizabeth Sparkle, the phrase “Oscar nominee Demi Moore” becomes more and more likely. If Mikey Madison gets points for her often naked Annie, Demi should get at least as many points for her portrayal of an aging Hollywood starlet thrown in the trash by the industry that used to love her so much.
On the fringes, we have a collection of previous winners, some perennial nominees, and one green witch. Just outside the five, currently, is our Chief AMCbassador, Nicole Kidman, for her role in the erotic thriller Babygirl, another performance that gets the BRAVE! stamp. We also have the double whammy of Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore in Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door. The movie, Almodóvar’s first in English, has gotten mixed reviews, but it’s never smart to discount Tilda and Julianne.
As for the always-bridesmaids, the most likely candidate this year is Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun. A few weeks ago, the four-time nominee looked like she would easily become the thirteenth person to get two nominations in the same year, but now it feels like her role in Blitz is the only safe bet. Farther down on the list, Amy Adams is back in the race for her role as a mom who thinks she’s turning into a dog in Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch. Once the “it’s finally her time” predicted winner, the less-than-awesome reviews don’t bode well, but the Academy loves nominating Amy Adams so much they’ve done it 6 times, including for Vice.
Lastly, we have Cynthia Erivo for her not-titular-but-titular role as Elphaba in the surging Wicked. Idina Menzel won the Tony for Elphie in 2004, but Cynthia will still have to do some work to make it into the dense nominations this year. A win is likely not in the cards (this year, at least), but an Oscar is all Cynthia is missing for her coveted EGOT.
Best Actor
- Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown***
- Daniel Craig, Queer
- Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Despite plenty of brilliant, inspired performances this year (Glen Powell in Hitman, Josh Hartnett in Trap, Hugh Grant in Heretic), Best Actor is falling under the same curse it usually does: BO-RING! That’s not true, but like countless years before, the actual contenders aren’t quite as exciting as the larger pool of leading male performances. That said, there are still some powerhouses this year, just not quite as many pickings as Actress.
At the top of the (alphabetical) pack is Adrien Brody, for his role in The Brutalist that is already drawing comparisons to Todd Field’s 2022 masterpiece TÁR (no, László Tóth is NOT a real person!). This would only be Brody’s second nomination ever, after he became the youngest Best Actor winner for The Pianist, another Holocaust drama. (Fun Fact: Adrien is half Polish, half Hungarian, and these two roles have him playing a Pole and a Hungarian, respectively.) As the heart of a mega-epic, it’s clear how Adrien got into contention here, even if he wasn’t one of the best actors of his generation.
While Adrien has exceedingly sure footing–and could still win the top prize–it’s also very likely that his record in this category may be broken. Genesis of the Lookalike Competitions, Timothée Chalamet is starring in a musician biopic, and 22 years and a handful of months younger than Adrien Brody. Starring as Bob Dylan in the upcoming A Complete Unknown, Chalamet is poised to absolutely dominate the category. Not only is he a wonder boy and Internet Boyfriend, musician biopics are one of the Academy’s main fetishes. Just ask Renée Zellweger, Rami Malek, Marion Cotillard, Reese Witherspoon, Jamie Foxx, and Sissy Spacek. Yes, he’s young in a category usually reserved for veterans, but, come on, he’s Timmy.
Speaking of veterans, there are three more angling for a nomination, if not their first win. With no prior nominations, Daniel Craig has the longest journey to go. Unfortunately, as the star of an idiosyncratic William S. Burroughs adaptation with lots of hard drugs and gay sex, he has a few more obstacles. Thankfully, Craig is beloved in the industry, and I don’t know if you know this, but he’s James Bond. Goodwill goes a long way at the Oscars, and Daniel definitely has enough to overpower his hurdles to a nomination, and isn’t out of the conversation for a win.
Our next veteran is a recent awards darling, despite being in the industry for decades. Colman Domingo, fresh off his nomination for last year’s Rustin is back in Sing Sing, a prison drama about–what else? — the magic of theater and the arts. A producer on the movie, too, Domingo once again does some of the best work of the year as an inmate at the eponymous prison who is the de facto leader of the theater troupe in an arts education program. Colman is one of the only actors in the movie with any real history onscreen, and many of his costars are formerly incarcerated people playing versions of themselves. He’s revered in Hollywood almost as much as Divine G is by his fellow prison players, and, of course, he’s so so good.
Last of the veterans is Lord Voldemort himself, Ralph Fiennes in as Cardinal Lawrence, the Dean of the Papal Conclave. Fiennes has only been nominated twice for the Oscar, both nearly 30 years ago. That means nothing for Harry Potter, nothing for The Menu, nothing for Sexy Beast, NOTHING for Grand Budapest Hotel. Conclave has been doing incredible numbers at the box office, and has generated almost as many memes as The Substance and Wicked. If the prize doesn’t go to Timmy–and it very much is not sealed up yet–Ralph is easily the second choice.
Obviously, these five gentlemen seem like formidable nominees in this race, so I understand if you don’t agree that Best Actor feels weak. The thing is, beyond these five, the pickings get SLIM. The biggest possibility is previous nominee Paul Mescal getting in as the lead of Gladiator II. As we’ve discussed, the cracks are starting to form in the Colosseum, and the movie will need a big groundswell to push Mescal over the line. Beyond Paul, you have Jharrel Jerome in Nickel Boys and Jesse Eisenberg in his own A Real Pain. Both movies will need to have a wave behind them for either of them to get in, but the ocean is still very much forming.
Best Supporting Actress
- Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
- Ariana Grande, Wicked***
- Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
- Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
- Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
As with Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress has a bad habit of ignoring some of the best work of the year (Rebecca Fergusson in Dune: Part Two I’ll never forget you). Fortunately, there are still plenty of luminous stars (and lawyers and folk singers and witches and nuns and daughters and better halves) that have real chances to make it into the mix.
Up first is Danielle Deadwyler, recently snubbed by the Academy for her performance in Till, in the August Wilson adaptation The Piano Lesson. With her 2022 shutout still feeling like a fresh wound, Deadwyler entered the race with a slight leg up. Couple that with the latest filmed version of The Pittsburgh Cycle directed by Denzel’s son (where Danielle unsurprisingly shines) and she’s a shoo-in for a nomination and a major contender to win.
Unfortunately for Danielle, someone else in a pink dress recently walked up the yellow brick road to burst her bubble. At the front of the Wicked Wave, Ariana Grande has been receiving rave reviews, mostly because she absolutely runs away with the movie. While she certainly has a hurdle to overcome not being a supposedly “serious” actor with a long track record, the Oscars do love an ingénue, especially in this category. And it doesn’t hurt that the chance to see multiplatinum recording artist Ariana Grande make an acceptance speech will have some folks salivating. But will this be her year, or will the Academy kick the can down the road another 365 days for Wicked: Part Two?
Despite her slowing momentum in Best Actress, Saoirse Ronan has only gained speed in the Supporting category. As the mother of a boy sent away during the London Bombing in World War II, this role (as well as her lead spot in The Outrun) mark a noticeable maturation for Ronan. Despite being about the same age as the characters, Saoirse’s reputation as Lady Bird means she’s been perceived as a youngin’ by Hollywood most of her career. Stepping into a role as a mother, on top of this being her fifth (or maybe sixth?) nomination without a win, and the fact that she sings multiple times means Saoirse is very high up in this race.
Potentially the weakest contender in the race, Isabella Rossellini, plays the lead nun in Conclave. It’s a role that means she must mostly be seen and not heard. Normally, this would mean being a non-contender, but this role is not all it may seem on the surface. Rossellini has a few lines here and there, but has one scene that apparently earned mid-film applause breaks at festivals. The Academy certainly has a history rewarding one-scene performances, especially in Supporting Actress (Judi Dench has a handful of lines in Shakespeare in Love, and Beatrice Straight won for Network with just over five minutes of screentime). But ultimately, if one needs precedence for what would be Isabella’s first nomination, simply look to the winner in 1974–a career win for one Ingrid Bergman.
Filling out the final spot in my predicted nominees–and the out-and-out frontrunner until recently–is Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez. This is our first real case of “category fraud” in the race, as you could easily argue that Saldaña is a co-lead in the movie (you could even argue she’s the only lead, and Karla Sofia Gascón is supporting), but actors are increasingly running themselves in Lead or Supporting to make a statement about who is Most Important in the film; Lily Gladstone and Michelle Williams both recently ran in Lead, despite most prognosticators assuming they would be going Supporting. Zoe, a stalwart of the century in the industry, and the heart of multiple of the highest-grossing films ever, is well-liked in Hollywood, and is still a major player, despite Emilia’s recent floundering.
Supporting Actress certainly feels the most sewn-up in terms of nominations this year, but there are a few more performances that could spoil things if their movies get the right traction. Closest to the bubble is Felicity Jones in The Brutalist. Already a nominee for The Theory of Everything, Jones could easily walk to a nomination if The Brutalist gets the kind of momentum and love many are expecting once it drops in December. Also on the edge is Margaret Qualley, who is only in the running for The Substance, despite having equally fun performances in Kinds of Kindness and Drive-Away Dolls this year.
We also have all three of His eponymous Three Daughters: Natasha Lyonne, Carrie Coon, and Elizabeth Olsen. The story out of first festivals was that this might be Lyonne’s chance to break into Oscar, but later opinions claimed the real story was the still-unnominated Coon, but this author will tell you the actual best performance is Olsen. Unfortunately, this exact kind of messiness is exactly why all three of the daughters will struggle to make it to the Dolby Theatre.
Best supporting Actor
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain***
- Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
After a brief interlude, our alphabetical leader returns. Anora actually has a whole crew of boys running around Brighton Beach, but the one with the highest chances unsurprisingly plays the emotional center of the film, Yura Borisov. We are first introduced to Borisov as “The Bald Goon” sent to wrangle Annie’s Russian oligarch heir husband when his parents find out he’s gotten married to a stripper. From the moment he appears onscreen, it’s clear Borisov’s Igor is different from the other Russian and Caucasian gruffs around him, and as the movie progresses, it only becomes more clear. Yura feels now like a pretty sure lock, but it will be the nomination of his costar, Mark Eydelshteyn (the oligarch heir, often dubbed “Russian Timothée Chalamet) that will show how far Anora will go this Oscars.
At the front of the pack (for now) is everyone’s favorite snarky chihuahua of a man, Kieran Culkin. In A Real Pain, he plays Jesse Eisenberg’s slacker cousin who joins him on a guided Holocaust tour in Poland, visiting the hometown of their recently deceased grandmother. Culkin isn’t doing much different from Roman Roy (he’s certainly more sympathetic of a character), but Roman Roy is also one of the better TV characters of the last ten years, so what’s not to like? Now that he’s an Emmy winner, the Motion Picture Academy may also be eager to stamp Kieran as “approved” by them, and it’s an easy way to reward a movie they liked but maybe don’t love.
In his feature film debut, Clarence Maclin plays a fictionalized version of himself during his time incarcerated at Sing Sing Correctional Facility. The newest member of Colman Domingo’s troupe, he is hesitant at first to fully embrace the arts program, but eventually (beautifully) performs Hamlet. It’s a role that makes you forget Domingo is the lead, but Maclin may have the longest road to a win (and maybe even a nomination). Sing Sing as a movie is farther in the back of most people’s minds, but as A24 enters Stage 2 of their promo campaign, I think the drama (and Clarence’s performance & story) will win over a lot of Academy voters.
If there’s any real “trend” in the last few years of the Oscars, it’s been the Academy “making up” for years of ignoring highly talented and beloved performers and filmmakers. It’s been a driving force behind the wins of Christopher Nolan, Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, and Will Smith (and why Tom Cruise will win an Oscar the minute he finishes his first prestigious non-Mission: Impossible movie). This year, plenty of performers will likely receive their first nomination after years in the business, including Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. As a wealthy client to Adrien Brody’s László Tóth, Pearce has received rave reviews, calling it a career-best performance. The Brutalist remains a bit up in the air, so the nomination may be the reward for Guy, but Kieran hasn’t locked anything up just yet.
And then there’s the 800-lb gorilla in the room. The only of my predicted nominees with any prior nominations, Denzel Washington still has his dress and rings on, going crazy, threatening to win his third Oscar for Gladiator II. Not long ago, Washington was sitting comfortably atop his throne as the presumed winner. As Gladiator II’s star wanes, his chances have dropped slightly. Luckily for him, everyone’s takeaway is that Denzel is far and away the best part of the film. A third Oscar is rare in any era; only seven actors have ever accomplished this, and Denzel would be the fourth man and first non-white person to do it. I certainly wouldn’t put it past the Academy–if anyone is gonna get a third Oscar, it’s Denzel–but as I’ve said, that hasn’t exactly been their vibe lately.
Also vying for a nomination, similar to his character in Conclave with the papacy, is Stanley Tucci. It’s a great performance from Tucci, who, despite already having one makeup nomination, feels overdue for an Oscar nom. In a similar boat is Edward Norton, playing Pete Seeger in A Complete Unknown. Both performers may benefit from swells from their respective movies, which seem equally likely.
Fishing for his first nomination is Jeremy Strong, frontrunner Kieran Culkin’s Succession sibling, as Roy Cohn in the Donald Trump biopic The Apprentice. Unsurprisingly, the film doesn’t paint Cohn or Trump in a positive light, and it’s recently gone nuclear in Hollywood as people are apparently afraid to touch it for fear of backlash from the incoming President (who already tried to block the movie’s release earlier this year). Strong is certainly in a better place than Sebastian Stan, who plays Trump, but he may have too hard of a battle to overcome.
Rounding out the bunch, you have twin hopefuls Peter Sarsgaard and John Magaro for September 5. Playing members of the ABC Sports team that covered the 1972 Munich Olympics Hostage Crisis, the movie certainly needs to box office or online buzz if either men want to go anywhere. We also have Samuel L. Jackson (ever heard of him?) in The Piano Lesson, a role that had high hopes in the summer but no longer seems to have any juice, as well as Harris Dickinson in Babygirl and Drew Starkey in Queer, a pair of sexy twinks with much older lovers. What more could you want?
